Humilityisthebestpolicyfortechnologicalforecasters.Ifyoudoubtthat,rememberthoseconfidentpredictionsof30yearsagoaboutthecomingarrivalofthe“paperlessoffice.”Thearrivalofcomputerseverywhereintheworkplacewould,wewereassured,soonmakepaperathingofthepast.BillGatesvisionofacomputeroneverydeskhasbeenmoreorlessrealized.Yetmostofthefolksworkingatthosedesksareknee-deepinpaper.Researchsuggestsourincreasinguseofpaperisduetotheintroductionoftheverydigitaltechnologythatwassupposedtowipeitout.
Thecasestudiesonemailintheworkplace,forexample,showthatitcanleadtoa40percentincreaseinpaperconsumption—andthisdoesn’ttakeintoaccounttheamountofpaperusedtoprintinformationfromtheInternet.There’sawonderfulironyhere,becausethepersonalcomputer—nottomentionthelaserprinter—wasinventedinalabsetupbyacopiercompanywhichwasworriedbyallthetalkofpaperlessoffices.Ourattachmenttopaperistrulyamazing.
Anastonishingproportionofemailusers,forexample,printsofftheirmessagesandstoresthemallinfilingcabinets.Tothetechnologicalrationalistthisbehaviorseemsirrational.Whystoreemailmessagesinpaperfiles,whichtakeupvaluablerealestateandareeffectivelyunsearchable,whenyoucankeepthemonaharddiskandeffortlesslylookthroughthemforkeywordsandphrases?Theanswer,ofcourse,isitistherationalistswhoareirrational.Ifpeoplelovepaper,theremustbeareasonforit.Andthereis.
Itishighlyportable,infinitelyflexibleandembodiesveryhigh-resolutiondisplaytechnology,whichconsumesnobatterypower.Anditdoesn’thavetobeturnedonbeforeyoucanreadit.