Almosteverynewinnovationgoesthroughthreephases.
Wheninitiallyintroducingintothemarket,theprocess1.
ofadoptionisslow.Theearlymodelsareexpensiveand
hardtouse,andperhapsevenunsafe.Theeconomic
impactisrelativelygreat.2.
Thesecondphaseistheexplosiveone,wheretheinnovation
wasrapidlyadoptedbyalargenumberofpeople.Itgets3.
cheaperandeasiertouseandbecomessomethingfamiliar.
Andtheninthethirdstage,diffusionoftheinnovation
slowsdownagain,asifitpermeatesoutacrosstheeconomy.4.
Duringtheexplosivephase,wholenewindustriesspring
uptoproducethenewproductorinnovation,andtoservice
it.Forexample,duringthe1920s,therewasdramatic5.
accelerationinautoproduction,from1.9millionin1920
to4.5millionin1929.Thisboomwasaccompaniedwithall6.
sortsofotheressentialactivitiesnecessaryforan
auto-basednation:Roadshadtobeenbuiltforthecarsto7.
runon;refineriesandoilwells,toprovidethegasoline;
andgarages,torepairit.8.
Historically,thesamepatternisrepeatedagainandagain
withinnovations.Theconstructionoftheelectricalsystem
requestedanenormousearlyinvestmentingenerationand9.
distributioncapacity.Theintroductionoftheradiowas
followedbyabuyingspree(无节制的狂热行为)byAmericans
whatquicklybroughtradiosintoalmosthalfofallhouseholds10.
by1930,upfromnearlynonein1924.