在中国海安一个鱼塘内建造的光伏电站,工作人员正在检查太阳能电池板。
The . Energy Information Administration projects that the world will need about 28 percent more energy in 2040 than it did in 2015 based on the number of people in the country and consumption patterns; on our current trajectory, about 42 percent of electricity in the United States will come from renewable sources.
美国能源信息署预计,根据各国人口数量和消费模式,2040年全球能源需求将比2015年多28%;按照我们目前的发展轨迹,美国大约42%的电力将来自可再生能源。
Where will that electricity get produced? Solar power could be produced on largely unpopulated land masses and transported to population centers, an idea Elon Musk raised about China five years ago. China has "an enormous land area, much of which is hardly occupied at all," he said, noting that most of China’s population is concentrated in coastal cities. "So you could easily power all of China with solar."
这些电力将在哪里产生?太阳能可以在几乎无人居住的宽广陆地上发电并输送到人口中心,这是埃隆·马斯克五年前提出的关于中国的设想。他说,中国拥有"巨大的土地面积,其中大部分几乎无人居住",并指出中国大部分人口都集中在沿海城市。"所以你可以轻松地用太阳能为整个中国供电。"
Another trend that, like increasing energy needs, isn’t new and isn’t going away: on-demand everything. Technology has led us to expect that goods and services will be delivered at the push of a button, often within minutes. That could transform real estate, especially space in cities that is currently used for retail. As companies work toward instant deliveries, they’ll need to warehouse items closer and closer to customers. Real estate investors are already contemplating how to create mini-warehouses on every block. And the density of people in cities is likely to affect the farming and delivery of food. To get fresh produce to customers quickly, vertical farming — in indoor, controlled environments — could move from being the dream of some start-ups to a new reality.
就像不断增长的能源需求,另一个趋势并不新鲜,也不会消失:按需获取一切。技术让我们期待商品和服务在按下按钮后就能送达,通常只需数分钟时间。这可能会改变房地产,尤其是目前在城市中用于零售业的空间。随着公司努力实现即时交付,他们需要将物品存放在离客户越来越近的地方。房地产投资者已经在考虑如何在每个街区创建迷你仓。城市人口密度可能会影响农业和食物的运送。为了快速向客户提供新鲜农产品,曾是一些初创企业梦想的垂直农业——在可控的温室环境下种植——可能会成为新现实。
And we’ll be older. In the United States, we’re likely to live until years old, compared with the current life expectancy of years, the United Nations forecasts. That’s a good thing and for health care companies and others that cater to older people. But living three extra years is going to be more expensive, which will have implications for both working and saving. According to the Urban Institute, government "projections indicate that there will be workers per Social Security beneficiary in 2040, down from in 1970."
还有,我们的寿命越来越长。联合国预测,在美国,我们的预期寿命很可能到达岁,而目前为岁。这对医疗保健公司和其他服务老年人的公司来说是一件好事。但多活三年会更贵,这将对工作和储蓄产生影响。据城市研究所称,政府"预测表明,到2040年,每个社会保障受益人将受益于名劳动者,低于1970年的名"。
Entrepreneurs, industry leaders and policymakers are already at work solving some of the problems that demographic data suggest are ahead of us, whether it’s figuring out how to incentivize farmers to sequester carbon, use insurance as a tool for reducing coal production, reinvent the motors that power heavy industry so they use less energy, or write laws that help govern code.
企业家、行业领袖和政策制定者已经在努力解决人口数据表明摆在我们面前的一些问题,无论是想办法激励农民固碳、使用保险作为减少煤炭产量的工具、改造发动机以减少重工业供电的能源消耗,或者制定有助于规定守则的法律。
What about the metaverse? Or crypto technology? Or robots taking our jobs? Or . taking over everything? Demographics can’t answer those questions. All of those things may happen, but life in 2041 may also look a lot like it does today — maybe with the exception of those flying cars.
那元宇宙呢?加密技术?被机器人抢走工作?人工智能接管一切?人口数据无法回答这些问题。所有这些事情都可能发生,但2041年的生活也可能看起来就像今天——说不定那时候已经有了会飞的车。