ItwouldbealltooeasytosaythatFacebook'smarketmeltdowniscomingtoanend.Afterall,MarkZuckerberg'ssocialnetworkburnedasmuchas$50billionofshareholders'wealthinjustacouplemonths.Toputthatincontext,sinceitsdebut(初次登台)onNASDAQinMay,FacebookhaslostvaluenearlyequaltoYahoo,AOL,Zynga,Yelp,Pandora,OpenTable,Groupon,LinkedIn,andAngie'sListcombined,plusthatofthebulkofthepubliclytradednewspaperindustry:
Asshockingasthisutterfailuremaybetothenearly1billionfaithfulFacebookusersaroundtheworld,it'snosurprisetoanyonewhoreadtheinitialpublicoffering(IPO)prospectus(首次公开募股说明书).Worsestill,allthecrisesthatemergedwhenthecompanydebuted-overpricedshares,poorcorporategovernance,hugechallengestothecorebusiness,andadamagedbrand-remaintoday.FacebooklookslikeaprimeexampleofwhatWallStreetcallsafallingknife-thatis,onethatcancostinvestorstheirfingersiftheytrytocatchit.
Startwiththevaluation(估值).TojustifyastockpriceclosetothelowerendoftheprojectedrangeintheIPO,say$28ashare,Facebook'sfuturegrowthwouldhaveneededtomatchthatofGooglesevenyearsearlier.Thatwouldhaverequiredincreasingrevenuebysome80percentannuallyandmaintaininghighprofitmarginsallthewhile.
That'snothappening.Inthefirsthalfof2012,Facebookreportedrevenueof$2.24billion,up38percentfromthesameperiodin2011.Atthesametime,thecompany'scostssurgedto$2.6billioninthesix-monthperiod.
Thisso-soperformancereflectstheAchilles'heelofFacebook'sbusinessmodel,whichthecompanyclearlystatedinalistofriskfactorsassociatedwithitsIPO:ithasn'tyetfiguredouthowtoadvertiseeffectivelyonmobiledevices,ThenumberofFacebookusersaccessingthesiteontheirphonessurgedby67percentto543millioninthelastquarter,ormorethanhalfitscustomerbase.
Numbersareonlypartoftheproblem.ThemountingpileoffailurecreatesanegativefeedbackloopthatthreatensFacebook'sfutureinotherways.Indeed,themoreFacebook'sdisappointmentinthemarketiscatalogued,theworseFacebook'simagebecomes.Notonlydoesthatthreatentoruboffonusers,it'sbadforrecruitmentandretentionoftalentedhackers,whoarethelifebloodofZuckerberg'screation.
YetthebrilliantCEOcanignorethesadnessandcomplaintsofhisshareholdersthankstothesuper-votingstockheholds.Thisarrangementalsowasfullydisclosedatthetimeoftheoffering.It'sapitysofewinvestorsapparentlybotheredtodotheirhomework.
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