UniversityofYorkbiologistPeterMayhewrecentlyfoundthatglobalwarmingmightactuallyincreasethenumberofspeciesontheplanet,contrarytoapreviousreportthathighertemperaturesmeantfewerlifeforms—areportmatwashisown.
InMayhew’sinitial2008study,lowbiodiversityamongmarineinvertebrates(无脊椎动物)appearedtocoincidewithwarmertemperaturesonEarthoverthelast520millionyears.ButMayhewandhiscolleaguesdecidedtoreexaminetheirhypothesis,thistimeusingdatathatwere“afairersampleofthehistoryoflife.”砌thisnewcollectionofmaterial.theyfoundacompletereversaloftherelationshipbetweenspeciesrichnessandtemperaturefromwhattheirpreviouspaperargued:thenumberofdifferentgroupspresentinthefossilrecordwashigher,ratherthanlower,durin9“greenhousephases.”
Theirpreviousfindingsrestedonanassumptionthatfossilrecordscanbetakentorepresentbiodiversitychangesthroughouthistory.Thisn’tnecessarilythecase.becausetherearecertainperiodswithhigher.qualityfossilsamples.andsomethataremuchmoredifficulttosamplewell.Awareofthisbias.Mayhew’steamuseddatathatstandardizedthenumberoffossilsexaminedthroughouthistoryandaccountedforothervariableslikesealevelchangesthatmightinfluencebiodiversityintheirnewstudytoseeiftheiroldresultswouldholdup.
Twoyearslater,theresultsdidnot.Butthenwhydoesn'tlifeincreasinglyemergeonEarthasourtemperaturesgetwarmer?
Whiletheswitchmaypromptsometoassertthatclimatechangeisnothazardoustolivingcreatures,Mayhewexplainedthatthetimescalesinhisteam’sstudyarehuge--over500millionyears--andthereforeinappropriatefortheshorterperiodsthatwemightlookatashumansconcernedaboutglobalwanning.Manyglobalwarmingconcernsarefocusedonthenextcentury.Hesaid——andthelifetimeofaspeciesistypicallyoneto10millionyears.
“Idoworrythatthesefindingsvillbeusedbytheclimateskepticcommunitytosay‘look.Climatewarmingisfine。hesaid.Nottomentionthenumerousotherthingsweseemtodotocreateastormofthreatstobiodiversity—thinkofwhathabitat(栖息地)destruction,overfishing,andpollutioncandoforaspecies’viability(生存力).Thosethings,Mayhewexplained,givetheorganismsafargreaterchallengeincopingwithclimatechangethantheywouldhavehadintheabsenceofhumans.
“Ifweweretorelaxallthesepressuresonbiodiversityandallowtheworldtorecoverovermillionsofyearsinawarmerclimate.thenmypredictionisitwouldbeanimprovementinbiodiversity,”hesaid.Soitlookslikeweneedtocurbourrecklesstreatmentoftheplanetfirst,ifwewanttoeventuallyseeasurgeinthenumberofspeciesontheplanetastemperaturesgetwarmer.Wedon'thave500millionyearstowait.