Anewstudyfindsthatthenaturaldeathofadictatordoesnotusuallyleadtoachangeinacounty’sgovernmentalsystem.Inotherwords,remainingleadersareunlikelytoputademocraticsystemintoplace.
ResearchersatMichiganStateUniversityandtheNationalIntelligenceCouncilcarriedoutthestudy,titled“WhenDictatorsDie.”ThemagazineJournalofDemocracypublishedit.
Thestudyfoundthatinmostcases,systemchangesaremoreprobableifadictatorisousted.
Theresearchersexaminedalmost80casesofdictatorswhodiedinofficebetween1946and2012.Theynotethat11ofthe55dictatorsnowinofficeareatleast70yearsold.Somearenotingoodhealth.
EricaFrantzisanassociateprofessoratMichiganState.Shewasoneoftheresearchers.
“ItstartedaboutthetimeofKimJong-il’sdeathinNorthKoreaafewyearsago.AndtherewasalotofbuzzinthemomentsafterwardsthatwemightseebigchangeinNorthKorea.Sowedecidedtodigaroundandlookatthedataandseewhattheempiricalrecordshowedbecausethat’snotanatypicalsituation.ThesametypeofthinghappenedalsoafterHugoChávez’sdeathinVenezuela.”
Frantzsaysresearcherswantedtoknowhowandwhenmediareportsofpossiblegovernmentalchangecametrue.
Shesaidtheyfoundthatnaturaldeathinofficewasusually,inherwords,“anon-event.”Shesaidleadershipchangesindictatorialsystemsusuallycomeduring“momentous”happenings,suchasoverthrows,electionsorrebellions.
Shesaysanexaminationoftheleadershipdeathsbetween1946and2012showsthereareseveralconditionsthatmightmakechangemorelikely.
Themorecentralizedthepower,shesays,themorelikelychangewillhappen.Inotherwords,iftherearefewornogovernmentalstructurestomanagethecontinuationofthesystem,changeismoreprobable.
Frantzsayspressure,suchasprotests,ontherulingpowerinthemonthsbeforeadictator’sdeathcanalsoincreasethelikelihood.
Thestudyalsoexaminedwhetheroverthrowsaremorelikelytotakeplacewhenarulerisold.Frantzsaysresearchersdidnotfindthattobethecase.
Shesaystherearelessonstobelearnedfromthestudy.Shesaysanolddictatorialleaderisasignofaskilledpolitician,whoisabletostayinpowerforalongtime.
“Theothertakeawaypoint,Ithink,isthatleadershiptransitionsmoregenerallyaremomentsthatincreaseacountry’sbaselineriskofregimecollapse.Butdeathinofficeisreallynotthemajormomentthatwecanleveragethosetypesofoccurrences.”
Researcherssayanotherreasonthereislittlechangeafteradictatorialrulerdiesinofficeisthattopofficialsseenoreasontochangepolicies.Somecountrieshavechangedtheconstitutiontopermitthemtoextendtheirterms,sometimesbymanyyears.Frantzsaystheyusethatmethodtogivetheappearanceofdemocracyratherthanusingforcetoremaininpower.
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