PresidentClinton’sdecisiononApr.8tosendChinesePremierZhuRongjipackingwithoutanagreementonChina’sentryintotheWorldTradeOrganizationseemedtobeamassivemiscalculation.ThePresidenttookadrubbingfrommuchofthepress,whichhadbreathlesslyreportedthatadealwasinthebag.TheCabinetandWhitHousestillappeareddivided,andbusinessleaderswerecharacterizedasfuriousoverthelostopportunity.ZhuchargedthatClintonlacked“thecourage”toreachanaccord.AndwhenClintonlatertelephonedtheangryZhutopledgearenewedeffortatnegotiations,thegesturewaswidelyportrayedasaflip-flop.
Infact,ClintonmadetherightdecisioninholdingoutforabetterWTOdeal.Alotmorehorsetradingisneededbeforeafinalagreementcanbereached.AndwithouttheAdministration’sgoalofa“bullet-proofagreement”thatbusinesslobbyistscanenthusiasticallyselltoaRepublicanCongress,thewholeprocesswillendupinpartisanacrimonythatcouldharmrelationswithChinaforyears.
THEHARDPART.Manybusinesslobbyists,whiledisappointedthatthedealwasnotclosed,agreethatbettertermscanstillbehad.AndTreasurySecretaryRobertE.Rubin,NationalEconomicCouncilDirectorGeneB.Sperling,CommerceSecretaryWilliamM.Daley,andtoptradenegotiatorCharleneBarshefskyalladvisedClintonthatwhiletheChinesehadmadearemarkablenumberofconcessions,“we’renotthereyet,”accordingtoseniorofficials.
NegotiatingwithZhuovertheremainingissuesmaybetheeasypart.AlthoughClintoncansignalU.S.approvalforChina’sentryintotheWTOhimself,heneedsCongresstograntBeijingpermanentmost-favored-nationstatusaspartofabroadtradeaccord.AndthetemptationformeddlingonCapitalHillmayproveover-whelming.ZhuhadbarelylandedbeforeSenateMajorityLeaderTrentLott(R-Miss)declaredhimselfskepticalthatChinadeservedentryintotheWTO.AndSenatorsJesseA.Helms(R-N.C.)andEmestF.Hollings(D-S.C.)promisedtointroduceabillrequiringcongressionalapprovalofanydeal.
Thehiddenmessagefromthesethreetextile-stateSoutherners:GetmoreprotectionfortheU.S.clothingindustry.Hopingtosmooththeway,theAdministrationtried,butfailed,tobudgeZhuontextiles.Alsoleftinthelurch:WallStreet,Hollywood,andDetroit.ZhurefusedtoopenupmuchofthelucrativeChinesesecuritiesmarketandinsistedon“cultural”restrictionsonAmericanmoviesandmusic.HealsoblockedeffortstoallowU.S.automakerstoprovidefleetfinancing.
BIGJOB.Already,businesslobbyistsareblanketingCapitolHilltopresaleanyeventualagreement,butwhatthey’veheardsofarisn’tencouraging.Republicans,includingLott,saythat“thetimejustisn’tright”forthedeal.Translation:We’redeterminedtomakeitlookasifClintonhascapitulatedtotheChineseandisignoringhuman,religious,andlaborrightsviolations;thetheftofnuclear-weaponstechnology;andthesaleofmissilepartstoAmerica’senemies.Beijing’sfiercecriticswithintheDemocraticParty,suchasSenatorPaulD.WellstoneofMinnesotaandHouseMinorityleaderRichardA.GephardtofMissouri,won’thelp,either.
JusthowtoughthelobbyingjobonCapitolHillwillbebecomeclearonApr.20,whenRubinlectured19chiefexecutivesontheneedtodisciplinetheirRepublicanallies.WithbusinessandtheWhiteHousestilltradingchargesoverwhoisresponsibleforthedefeatoffast-tracktradenegotiatinglegislationin1997,workingtogetherwon’tbeeasy.
AndRepublicans—withawink—saythatthey’lleventuallyembraceChina’sentryintotheWTOasafavortoCorporateAmerica.ThoughnotlongbeforetheytortureClinton.ButZhuisoutonalimb,andifCongressoverdoesthecriticism,hemaybeforcedbydomesticcriticstorenege.BusinessmustmakethismuchdeartobothitsGOPalliesandtheWhitHouse:Thishistoricdealistooimportanttorisklosingtoanymorepartisansquabbling.
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