Investmentinthelatterpartof2002andatthestartof2003hasbeendrivenbygeopoliticalconcerns1buttheunderlyingbackgroundismorecomplex,andreflectscurrencyconcerns,alongwiththedesiretohedgeagainstrisksintheequityandbondmarketsand,notablyinthecaseof2ArgentinaandJapan,risksinthebankingsector.Corporategovernanceproblemsalsoplayedastrongpartduringthefirstpartof2002,asadeepeningmistrustofcorporatereportsandaccountsaugmentedsomeinvestors’desiretohedgeagainstequityexposure.Goldthusreasserteditselfasanalternativeassetclass,enablingtheprofessionalinvestortodiversifyhisrisk.Withconcernsalsoswirlinginthemarketsaboutthedestinyofthedollar,theeuroandtheyen,goldandtheSwissfranccameintoplayasreservecurrencies.
Asaconsequence,theprofessionalinvestorisonceagainlookingatgoldasahedgeagainstrisk—somethingthatmanyindividualsindevelopingnationshaveneverceasedtodo.TheseindividualinvestorsintheMiddleEast,Indiansub-continentandtheFarEasthaveremainedloyaltogoldasasafehaven,oran“ultimateinvestment”asaportable、anonymousformofmoneyanditisthissustainedactivitywhichhasformedthefoundationofthechangeinsentimentintherestoftheworld.The“retail”investorintheso-calledfirstworldisalsoawareofgold’sresurgenceandtherehasbeenanoticeablerekindlingofinterestincoinsandbarsfromthisquarteraswellinterestingoldinotherformsfromotherinvestmentpools.
Offsettingthisfreshdemandtosomeextentisthefactthattheslowingglobaleconomyhadanegativeeffectonpurchasesofgoldinthejewellerysector,andthepoorIndianmonsoon3meantthatIndianofftake,theworld’slargest,wasparticularlybadlyhampered.Thisisoneoftheanswerstothequestion“whydidn’tthepricerisefurther,givenalltheotheruncertaintiesintheworld?”Oneoftheimportantfeaturesofgoldisthatmoreoftenthannot,areasonforonemantobuyitisthesamereasonforanothermantosellit.Itisthisthathelpstomakeitanattractivealternativeassetclassasithascharacteristicsallofitsownandanegative,ifany,correlationwithmanyoftheothermajorassetclasses.Inthiscasetheslowingeconomyhinderedjewellerypurchases,butpromptedpurchasesfrominvestorsconcernedthatstockmarketvaluationsweretoohighgiventhedeterioratingoutlookforearnings.
Itisworthpointingoutalsothatifthepricehadrocketed,theintegrityofthedemandsidewouldhavebeenseverelyunderminedandsucharallywouldhaveprovedunsustainable.